Educator Supply and Demand in the South African Public Education System

List of tables
List of figures
Abbreviations and acronyms
Acknowledgements
Executive summary

1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Literature review
1.2 Research methodology
1.3 Conceptual model: demand for and supply of educators

2 GROWTH DEMAND FOR EDUCATORS

2.1 Learner enrolment trends
2.2 Learner-educator ratio
2.3 The ratio of orphans and other vulnerable children

3 REPLACEMENT DEMAND FOR EDUCATORS

3.1 Trends in the employment of educators
3.2 Demographics of educators
3.3 Attrition of educators
3.4 Morbidity
3.5 Mortality
3.6 Intention to quit
3.7 Productivity
3.8 Educator promotion

4 EDUCATOR SUPPLY

4.1 Educator enrolments, completions, destinations of new graduates
4.2 Morbidity and mortality of student educators and FET lecturers
4.3 Educators returning from educator pool
4.4 International migration (immigration and emigration)
4.5 Qualification of educators and key learning areas

5 PROJECTIONS OF EDUCATOR DEMAND AND SUPPLY TO 2008

5.1 Projecting the growth demand for school educators in South Africa, 2004-2008
5.2 Projected replacement demand for educators
5.3 Projected supply of educators
5.4 Comparing supply with demand

6 MODERATORS OF REPLACEMENT DEMAND FOR AND SUPPLY OF EDUCATORS

6.1 Job satisfaction
6.2 Educator recruitment and preparation
6.3 Educators in key learning and rural areas
6.4 Impact of HIV and ARV treatment
6.5 Demand-side policies
6.6 Data tracking

7 RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1 Production of more educators
7.2 Attract more students to and retain educators in the teaching profession
7.3 New education graduates
7.4 Educator recruitment and preparation
7.5 Roles of educators
7.6 Improve classroom environment and job satisfaction
7.7 Review of policies
7.8 Health of educators
7.9 Antiretroviral treatment
7.10 Encourage teaching in rural areas
7.11 Create a dynamic data tracking system
7.12 Periodical review

8 APPENDICES

Appendix 1: Survey methods for FET college lecturers and tertiary education students
Appendix 2: CD4 cell counting and projections of AIDS deaths and ART impact
Appendix 3: HIV prevalence among educators by district
Appendix 4: Code list for subjects and learning areas

9 REFERENCES

Prepared for the Education Labour Relations Council by a research consortium comprising the Social Aspects of HIV/AIDS unit and Child, Youth, Family and Social Development Research Programme of the Human Sciences Research Council.